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Instead of marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is increasingly seen as a debt consolidation year, in which diversification-led development becomes more deeply ingrained in the area's financial model, reducing reliance on hydrocarbons and increasing durability to external shocks. Forecasts from major institutions broadly converge on a more powerful GCC growth profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by durable domestic need, continued non-oil expansion, and (to differing degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.

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The World Bank, on the other hand, tasks 3.2 percent growth in 2025, speeding up to 4.5 percent in 2026. The IMF Sees momentum improving, with GCC output growth projected to rise from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, showing a shift towards more favorable total conditions.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) projects worldwide growth relieving to 3.1 percent in 2026, with sophisticated economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and establishing economies simply above 4 percent. On that contrast, a 4.44.5 percent GCC growth would position the region materially ahead of the world average and slightly above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, reinforcing the GCC's status as a fairly high-growth pocketprovided that local threat conditions remain consisted of and reform momentum holds.

Data from the GCC Statistical Center reveal that non-oil sectors currently represent more than 73 percent of total GDP, a share that has actually continued to increase as governments expand financial investment in services, facilities, and technology. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity across the GCC is projected to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, enhancing credit conditions, and rising investment in innovation and AI-related infrastructure.

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Public-sector investment and reform stay central to sustaining this trend. Policy measures targeted at drawing in foreign direct investment, reducing foreign ownership guidelines, expanding capital markets, and supporting private-sector participation continue to underpin non-oil growth and minimize the region's exposure to oil rate volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer dominate the development outlook, oil profits are expected to play a helpful role in 2026.

Oxford Economics anticipates Brent crude costs to fall below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, limiting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. However, oil supply is anticipated to rise again in the second half of the year, with a full unwinding of remaining production caps most likely by mid-2027.

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Macroeconomic conditions across the GCC stay broadly encouraging of growth. Inflation is anticipated to remain low, with the IMF forecasting average inflation of 2 percent across the region in 2026. Steady costs are helping preserve real household incomes and underpin consumer costs, which Oxford Economics expects to grow by an average of 3.5 percent over 20262027.